From the WWII Peace Dividend to the Current U.S. Pre-War Mindset
By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA
“For investors, this pivot means re-evaluating priorities. Whereas ESG prioritized sustainability, enterprise security monitoring insists on robust, resilient, security-aligned portfolios—favoring champions in advanced manufacturing, semiconductor production, energy security, AI, quantum computing, and strategic infrastructure. Large asset managers once steered by ESG’s big names are now joined by policymakers, generals, and corporate leaders, all aiming to anchor economic strength to national security.”
Vaughn L. Woods, CFP, MBA
Baby Boomers know they grew up squarely in the middle of the “Peace Dividend” -a legacy which began after WWII, when leaders like Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Clement Attlee, and Konrad Adenauer helped reimagine global finance and domestic priorities. The Marshall Plan and Bretton Woods institutions fostered an era of stability, international growth, and optimism about peace and economic progress. For several decades post-1945, nations reallocated defense budgets toward rebuilding, social programs, and infrastructure, underwriting the welfare state and creating the environment for the rise of global companies and capital markets.
This dividend began to dissipate amid Cold War tensions and by the 1980s, as military budgets crept up, only to reemerge once more following the collapse of the Soviet Union. U.S. Presidents like George H. W. Bush and major European leaders—Margaret Thatcher, François Mitterrand, Helmut Kohl—championed peace-driven defense cuts. The 1990s ushered in a new wave of optimism; thinkers like Francis Fukuyama predicted an “end of history” and globalization swept markets along paths paved with open borders, capital flows, and technological acceleration.
From Peace Dividend to Security Mandate
But the world did not remain static. By the late 2010s and 2020s, new risks—geopolitical rivalry, supply chain fragility, and the return of great power competition—had upended the serene assumptions underpinning the peace dividend. Calls by Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, and defense chiefs such as Lloyd Austin for defense rearmament reflected this shift.
To illustrate:
Joe Biden: Warned against isolationism, vowed the U.S. would not “walk away” from Ukraine, and called for sustained NATO unity and increased European investment in defense and deterrence. He drew parallels between WWII and today’s threats, stressing that alliances and rearmament ensure freedom and security.
Emmanuel Macron: Called the U.S.-France relationship an “eternal bond” and advocated significant European defense investment and autonomy to ensure European security, especially as American political uncertainty increased. Macron promoted a vision of integrated European defense industrial capability in response to current threats.
Olaf Scholz: Supported expanded German and European defense roles, echoed calls for greater military readiness, and underlined Germany’s commitment to U.S.-led security guarantees in Europe while also pushing for long-term European self-reliance.
Lloyd Austin: Orchestrated coalition military aid for Ukraine (Ramstein format) and called for sustained Western defense investments, industrial mobilization, and the stockpiling of advanced munitions to counter threats from Russia and beyond.
Investing’s Evolution: From ESG to Enterprise Security Monitoring
Throughout the last cycle, (2015-2025) investment themes were shaped by the rise of ESG. Its architects—Larry Fink (BlackRock), Mark Carney (UN/Brookfield/Bank of England), Christine Lagarde (ECB/IMF), Lisa Jackson (Apple)—transformed portfolios worldwide, embedding sustainability and governance as core priorities. Yet even Fink and Carney now find themselves confronting a radically challenged status quo, as metrics and mandates fail to capture national security imperatives. In 2023–2025, the cycle showed signs of strain as global regulatory responses, geopolitical pressures, and SEC/EU rule shifts created a more contested landscape for ESG investing, leading to notable outflows in 2024 and 2025
Enter the enterprise security monitoring agenda: a practical evolution driven by national security strategists, defense policymakers, and industry leaders. Enterprise security monitoring isn’t simply about increased defense spending; it is a sweeping mandate led by the likes of Lloyd Austin (US Defense Secretary), Emmanuel Macron (France), Olaf Scholz (Germany), and Mark Rutte (NATO) to invest trillions in onshoring, securing energy, critical minerals, and technological superiority.
What It Means for Investors
For investors, this pivot means re-evaluating priorities. Whereas ESG prioritized sustainability, enterprise security monitoring insists on robust, resilient, security-aligned portfolios—favoring champions in advanced manufacturing, semiconductor production, energy security, AI, quantum computing, and strategic infrastructure. Large asset managers once steered by ESG’s big names are now joined by a different set of policymakers, generals, and corporate leaders, all aiming to anchor economic strength to national security.
Core Investment Themes in the Enterprise Security Monitoring World
Supply Chain Resiliency & Onshoring: Companies positioned for domestic manufacturing and secure-source supply chains.
Technological Superiority: AI, advanced chips, quantum computing, and aerospace/defense.
Strategic Infrastructure & Energy Security: Grid modernization, secure energy sources, and cybersecurity.
National Champions: Firms with systemic roles in security and infrastructure benefit from rising government outlays and resilience-focused policy.
Enterprise Security Monitoring vs Speculation
The volatility in speculative stocks underscores the importance of the pre-war approach—favoring resilient, government-backed companies over unproven bets. Enterprise Security Monitoring is a long-term shift shaping capital flows, public policy, and economic architecture.
The Bottom Line
Global finance has pivoted from the optimism of the post-WWII and post-Soviet “peace dividend” eras—shepherded by Truman, Eisenhower, Bush, Thatcher, and Clinton—to the present strategic reality, led by defense, government, and innovation architects. ESG’s legacy—championed by Fink, Carney, Lagarde—has given way to the professional security services; that is, a mandate, and investors must adapt if they wish to understand and benefit from opportunities in the new era. Unfortunately now, most potential opportunities we are seeing are currently overpriced, so we must wait.
Sincerely,
Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA
Vaughn Woods Financial Group, Inc.
2226 Avenida De La Playa
La Jolla, CA 92037
858-454-6900
Sources:
Hinnershitz, S. (2022, March 29). The Marshall Plan and postwar economic recovery. The National WWII Museum. https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/marshall-plan-and-postwar-economic-recovery
Zeidan, R. (2025). ESG investing. In The Green Banking Transition Manual (pp. 175–255). Springer. https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/sprchp/978-981-96-2852-0_4.html
Suesse, M. (2023, September 11). The Soviet economic collapse: New evidence on the potentially harmful effects of state breakup. Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/soviet-economic-collapse-new-evidence-potentially-harmful-effects-state-breakup
Tong, X., Lo, C. K. Y., Lai, K.-h., & Cheng, T. C. E. (2019). Supply chain security management: A citation network analysis. International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 11(6), 508–532. https://research.polyu.edu.hk/en/publications/supply-chain-security-management-a-citation-network-analysis
Hsueh, C.-Y., & Radzinsky, B. (2023). Quantum computing: Bridging the national security–digital sovereignty divide. European Journal of Risk Regulation, 14(3), 476–483. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-journal-of-risk-regulation/article/quantum-computing-bridging-the-national-securitydigital-sovereignty-divide/515B8E8F0645CC5A6A7ADBC25AEF8C90current security-driven mindset:
Lamoreaux, N. R., & Others (Eds.). (2019). The Bretton Woods Agreements: Together with Scholarly Commentaries and Essential Historical Documents. Yale University Press.
Fukuyama, F. (1992). The end of history and the last man. Free Press.
U.S. Department of Defense. (2022). 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America. https://www.defense.gov/
BlackRock, Inc. (2024). Annual letters to CEOs (L. Fink, Author). https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/investor-relations/larry-fink-ceo-letter
United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment. (2023). UN PRI Annual Report 2023. https://www.unpri.org/
Carney, M. (2023). Public speeches and commentary on ESG and finance. Bank of England, Brookfield Asset Management.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (2024). NATO Summit Communiqués, 2023–2024. https://www.nato.int/
Macron, E. (2023–2025). Public speeches on European security. Official website of the Presidency of France.
Scholz, O. (2023–2025). Speeches on German and European defense policy. Official website of the Federal Government of Germany.
Austin, L. (2023–2025). U.S. Department of Defense press briefings and speeches. U.S. Department of Defense.
Rutte, M. (2023–2024). NATO and European Defense commentary. NATO official website.
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Investors should be aware that there are risks inherent in all investments such as fluctuations in investment principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Asset allocation cannot assure a profit nor protect against loss. Although the information has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, it cannot be guaranteed. Views expressed in this newsletter are those of Vaughn Woods and Vaughn Woods Financial Group and may not reflect the views of Bolton Global Capital or Bolton Global Asset Management. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individual recommendation or personalized investment advice. Views expressed in this newsletter are those of Vaughn Woods and Vaughn Woods Financial Group and may not reflect the views of Bolton Global Capital or Bolton Global Asset Management. VW1/VWA0336.