February 2023 Newsletter
A Study of Two Eds and Their Varied Prediction of the Economic Cycle With an introductory paragraph on The Current War to Halt Inflation By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA The war on inflation is well underway. Yet the latest inflation data is disturbing. Despite rising mortgage rates into the 6-7% range, the latest […]
January 2023 Newsletter
Hedging in a Changing World The world is witnessing a great power conflict between the United States and China. The winner of the conflict, especially the currency war between these two, may well advance western or eastern hegemony for decades to come; that is, their social, cultural, and economic influence over the world. In this […]
December 2022 Newsletter
A Bit of Christmas Hope Based Upon Fundamental Evidence and Cyclicality The consensus view on Wall Street is that the Fed may raise interest rates well into 2023 and thereafter, keeping rates high, perhaps until a recession is well underway through most of 2023. While the Federal Reserve has not yet begun easing, the […]
News From the Front Lines of Investment Decision Making
News From the Front Lines of Investment Decision Making By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA By mid-2022, bond sellers outstripped bond buyers 62% to 38%. The depth of the bear market in bonds was accelerating. As fears of additional Fed rate hikes and the 10-year yield continued to climb, something happened. The percent of investors […]
November 2022 Newsletter
Group Think By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA A new bull market is often seen as a sign of economic recovery and renewed confidence. And there are signs of a bottoming market. To illustrate, while inflation fears have intensified since mid-year, bond yields have risen, and the Fed has persistently raised the funds rate. Despite all, […]
Non-Embedded Inflation, Fed Actions and Market Pathology
The Recent Past Remember the great recession of 2008? Well, after almost a decade of supporting the securities markets (stocks and bonds) with independent monetary policies the Federal Reserve acknowledged that it was time to add fiscal policy. There were signs things were beginning to perk up after the Trump administration passed the (TCJA) Tax […]
Sovereign Debt Levels, The World Bank, Food, Inflation, Recession and Confidence
Sovereign Debt Levels, The World Bank, Food, Inflation, Recession and Confidence By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA According to David Malpass, President of the World Bank, the world is moving sharply into recession. He reports that most of the world’s investment capital has been used to buy bonds over the last decade. This risk-off policy […]
September 2022
September Newsletter Much of what I write about has to do with economic cycles…for a reason. It affects everyone sooner or later and markets very quickly. So, let’s talk about the contemporary economic and financial market cycle we have and are witnessing daily. It’s been a weird cycle so far. To put “it” in […]
August 2022 Mewsletter
Cloud Computing Industry In 1956, then U.S. Vice President Richard Nixon, under President Dwight D. Eisenhower, told Soviet First Secretary Nikita Khrushchev that the United States constitution allowing for free speech represented the better economic business model. Khrushchev pushed back saying, “We will bury you.” In the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan swaggered with confidence […]
July 2022 Newsletter
Oil. Oil. Oil. Sometimes I write articles to you about the immediacy of current and future trends in the stock and bond market. However, sometimes, adding broader context is helpful. In this case I choose oil. Oil is a leading cause of war. It shows up in inflation. It fuels resource wars. It can […]