August 2023 Newsletter

Economic Cycle News Are we approaching the best or worst time to invest? By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA   Reminders of the Relationship Between Rates and Market Valuations   When interest rates go up and corporate earnings go down, it’s the worst time to invest. Conversely, when interest rates go down and earnings go up, […]

July 2023 Newsletter

Inflation, Risk, Reward, and the Transfer Mechanism Effect   Good news.  Inflation is slowing…slowly. Will slowly turn into too slowly? The data-dependent stock market has the answer.  Probably by November. Could it be that people holding low fixed-rate mortgages, strong post-pandemic consumer balance sheets and low unemployment are pushing back against the Fed’s strategy to […]

June 2020 Newsletter

Our Heterodox Presidential Administration and Recession President Joe Biden and his administration have immense power to influence the economy. Therefore, as is the case with all presidential power, if the President’s economic policy (mainstream or not) delivers the goods, a second term may be forthcoming. Choose the wrong economic policy, however, and you are likely […]

Accounting for the Wrong Test

Accounting for the Wrong Test Stress Testing, Statistical Data, Confidence and Monitoring And now another shoe drops. First Republic Bank no longer inspires confidence. So little can be done because banks are special businesses.  A bank’s customers are also its lenders. The moment the customer moves on the bank also loses a lender. And the […]

April 2023 Newsletter

The End of Savings Safety and the Beginning of Economic Understanding Includes a Fun Assignment   When it comes to investing your hard-earned money for safety, there are four big players in the game. Banks offer savings accounts and certificates of deposit, while insurance companies provide options for annuities and pensions. Municipal bonds backed by […]

March 2023 Newsletter

Suddenly Safety Money is Risky   Common sense isn’t always so easy to come by, and when it comes to national spending, we often must make difficult choices. For example, winning WWII cost an enormous amount; in modern terms: $4.7 trillion! But as the coronavirus pandemic has led us into uncharted economic territory with $13 […]

February 2023 Newsletter

A Study of Two Eds and Their Varied Prediction of the Economic Cycle With an introductory paragraph on The Current War to Halt Inflation   By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA   The war on inflation is well underway. Yet the latest inflation data is disturbing. Despite rising mortgage rates into the 6-7% range, the latest […]

January 2023 Newsletter

Hedging in a Changing World The world is witnessing a great power conflict between the United States and China. The winner of the conflict, especially the currency war between these two, may well advance western or eastern hegemony for decades to come; that is, their social, cultural, and economic influence over the world. In this […]

December 2022 Newsletter

A Bit of Christmas Hope Based Upon Fundamental Evidence and Cyclicality   The consensus view on Wall Street is that the Fed may raise interest rates well into 2023 and thereafter, keeping rates high, perhaps until a recession is well underway through most of 2023. While the Federal Reserve has not yet begun easing, the […]

News From the Front Lines of Investment Decision Making

News From the Front Lines of Investment Decision Making By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA   By mid-2022, bond sellers outstripped bond buyers 62% to 38%. The depth of the bear market in bonds was accelerating. As fears of additional Fed rate hikes and the 10-year yield continued to climb, something happened. The percent of investors […]