News From the Front Lines of Investment Decision Making

News From the Front Lines of Investment Decision Making By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA   By mid-2022, bond sellers outstripped bond buyers 62% to 38%. The depth of the bear market in bonds was accelerating. As fears of additional Fed rate hikes and the 10-year yield continued to climb, something happened. The percent of investors […]

November 2022 Newsletter

Group Think By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA A new bull market is often seen as a sign of economic recovery and renewed confidence. And there are signs of a bottoming market.  To illustrate, while inflation fears have intensified since mid-year, bond yields have risen, and the Fed has persistently raised the funds rate. Despite all, […]

Non-Embedded Inflation, Fed Actions and Market Pathology

The Recent Past Remember the great recession of 2008? Well, after almost a decade of supporting the securities markets (stocks and bonds) with independent monetary policies the Federal Reserve acknowledged that it was time to add fiscal policy. There were signs things were beginning to perk up after the Trump administration passed the (TCJA) Tax […]

Sovereign Debt Levels, The World Bank, Food, Inflation, Recession and Confidence

Sovereign Debt Levels, The World Bank, Food, Inflation, Recession and Confidence By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA   According to David Malpass, President of the World Bank, the world is moving sharply into recession. He reports that most of the world’s investment capital has been used to buy bonds over the last decade. This risk-off policy […]

September 2022

September Newsletter   Much of what I write about has to do with economic cycles…for a reason. It affects everyone sooner or later and markets very quickly. So, let’s talk about the contemporary economic and financial market cycle we have and are witnessing daily. It’s been a weird cycle so far. To put “it” in […]

August 2022 Mewsletter

Cloud Computing Industry   In 1956, then U.S. Vice President Richard Nixon, under President Dwight D. Eisenhower, told Soviet First Secretary Nikita Khrushchev that the United States constitution allowing for free speech represented the better economic business model.  Khrushchev pushed back saying, “We will bury you.”  In the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan swaggered with confidence […]

July 2022 Newsletter

Oil. Oil. Oil.   Sometimes I write articles to you about the immediacy of current and future trends in the stock and bond market. However, sometimes, adding broader context is helpful. In this case I choose oil. Oil is a leading cause of war.  It shows up in inflation. It fuels resource wars. It can […]

OK, Investor: What Do You Want

OK, Investor: What Do You Want?   What do you want? Yes, you want the market to engage in a ferocious upside rally, but that won’t happen quite yet. Here’s why. To put it succinctly there is a best time to make profits and a worst time to make profits. We’re in the latter phase. […]

May 2022 – Newsletter

Inflation, International and Domestic Threats and Investment Strategy   By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA   The United States is now facing one of the greatest inflationary trends of the post-war era. Does this mean the stock market is doomed? Not at all. The complexity of current market uncertainty includes more than inflation. The war in […]

April 2022 – Newsletter

Guns or butter? Inflation or standard of living? Ukrainian cities continue to suffer Russian bombing even as Russian officials are thought to be behind the poisoning of at least two senior Ukrainian peacekeepers prior to the start of new peace talks. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden announced the largest investment in national security in history, […]