July 2022 Newsletter
Oil. Oil. Oil. Sometimes I write articles to you about the immediacy of current and future trends in the stock and bond market. However, sometimes, adding broader context is helpful. In this case I choose oil. Oil is a leading cause of war. It shows up in inflation. It fuels resource wars. It can […]
OK, Investor: What Do You Want
OK, Investor: What Do You Want? What do you want? Yes, you want the market to engage in a ferocious upside rally, but that won’t happen quite yet. Here’s why. To put it succinctly there is a best time to make profits and a worst time to make profits. We’re in the latter phase. […]
May 2022 – Newsletter
Inflation, International and Domestic Threats and Investment Strategy By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA The United States is now facing one of the greatest inflationary trends of the post-war era. Does this mean the stock market is doomed? Not at all. The complexity of current market uncertainty includes more than inflation. The war in […]
April 2022 – Newsletter
Guns or butter? Inflation or standard of living? Ukrainian cities continue to suffer Russian bombing even as Russian officials are thought to be behind the poisoning of at least two senior Ukrainian peacekeepers prior to the start of new peace talks. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden announced the largest investment in national security in history, […]
February 2022 Newsletter
Update, Logic and Strategic Considerations The Technical Take The technical condition of the stock market deteriorated during the month of January as the major averages traded down through key long-term moving-averages and support-levels. This movement briefly erased about half of the gains from 2021. The sum of this data has moved the Market Edge […]
January 2022 Newsletter
Inflation, Market Valuations, and Year End estimates. After years of fiscal and monetary stimulus, inflation is now the great concern. Inflation increases stock volatility. It causes the cost of labor to go up. It eats into everyone’s purchasing power. It crushes the standard of living of those people living on a fixed income. It […]
November 2021
Is the market overpriced? Well, let’s talk about the pain trade. At present, the pain trade is not being bullish enough. So, FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) meets FOCAV (Fear of Collapsing Asset Values). The struggle looks to be stalling out both camps. So, what is the cyclical index predicting over the next two months […]
October 2021 Newsletter
Questions and Answers Q1: Vaughn, I noticed you aren’t trading as much these days. What’s up? Buying and selling stocks is a cyclical matter. More trading is necessary when market cycles are ending or beginning. We are neither at the end nor the beginning of our current economic expansion, brought on the national lockdown. We […]
September 2021 Newsletter
Chips and a Dip, Anger and Progress, During a Mid-Cycle Market Are we coming to the end of an economic cycle? Not even close. Fear over COVID is waning and consumer demand for everything from cars to clothing is strong. Word of a coming pill therapy is giving hope to some seventy million Americans who […]
August 2021 Newsletter – Mid-Month Strangely Bullish
Over the last 5 quarters, analysts have significantly underestimated S&P 500 earnings. Some 90% of companies reporting have outperformed quarterly earnings estimates even as a resurgence of pandemic fears are on the minds of many. Consumer demand is strong. Empty shelves must be restocked. Remaining inventories have pricing power. Raw material providers also benefit from […]