High Rates, Empty Open Houses:
What Record Delistings and a Firm 10‑Year Mean for Your 5‑Year Plan
By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA
When mortgage rates are high and open houses sit empty, the housing market sends a very different message than the stock ticker does. Record‑level home delistings -sellers pulling their properties off the market rather than cutting price – combined with a firm 10‑year Treasury yield create a long, grinding stalemate that matters for your next five years of financial decisions. This is exactly the kind of environment where having a coordinated plan for your home, your portfolio, and your cash flow becomes more important than calling the next short‑term move.
The delisting wave: what’s really happening
Across the country, sellers are yanking homes off the market at the fastest pace in roughly eight years, often after a few months of weak traffic, disappointing offers, and rising frustration. Many would rather step back than accept a price that feels like a comedown from the pandemic‑era highs they anchored on, so they delist and wait, turning a straightforward sale into a “not now” decision.
This behavior tightens what really matters: effective inventory. The number of homes technically “for sale” can look decent on paper, but the number truly available at market‑clearing prices shrinks as owners pull listings or quietly test off‑market channels. That supports nominal prices and keeps headline declines modest, even as buyers encounter thin options and a market that feels frozen.
Why owners are pulling listings
The motives behind delisting are varied, but they rhyme:
Lack of offers and “stale” listings
Many sellers list with expectations shaped by 2021 bidding wars, only to discover that buyers in 2025 are highly rate‑sensitive and extremely price‑conscious. After 30–60 days with limited showings and a string of lowball offers, delisting feels better than advertising “no one wanted my house at this price,” especially in neighborhoods where perception matters.
Life doesn’t line up with the market
Job changes, school calendars, family health and caregiving needs, or a delayed retirement can all derail a move. In those cases, delisting is a way to buy time: keep the low‑rate mortgage, re‑group, and either try again later or pivot to renting out the property.
Strategic resets
Some owners use delisting as part of a longer game: fix deferred maintenance, update kitchens and baths, or rework pricing and staging. Rather than chasing the market down through a series of public price cuts, they step out of the spotlight, improve the property or the marketing, and then come back when they believe the narrative is stronger.
Three human stories inside the trend
Here are three composite narratives that capture the emotional and financial reality behind the data – and may sound familiar to you or people you know.
The move‑up family: “We’ll wait this cycle out”
A dual‑income couple with young kids listed their starter home in a strong school district, aiming to trade up into more space. On paper, this should have been easy. But at current mortgage rates, the monthly payment on their target home was shockingly high, and the buyers walking through their open houses were just as payment‑constrained. After two months and a few offers well below list, they pulled the property. Instead of forcing a marginal move, they chose to wait: aggressively paying down their existing mortgage, building cash reserves, and investing extra savings in a diversified portfolio while they watch how both rates and prices evolve.
The thoughtful downsizer: “Fix first, list later”
A near‑retiree, widowed a few years ago, decided it was time to downsize after decades in a family home. Feedback from buyers and agents was consistent: they loved the lot and location, but the dated roof, older windows, and worn kitchen made the asking price feel rich given higher monthly payments. Rather than accept a significantly lower price today, she delisted, used a combination of cash and a small home‑equity line to fund targeted improvements, and re‑timed her move to align with her broader retirement income plan. For her, delisting turned a discouraging experience into a phased strategy.
The accidental landlord: “For sale” becomes “for rent”
A professional who relocated for a new job listed his former home, expecting a quick sale based on online estimates and neighborhood comps. The reality was different: buyers balked at the payment, and investor bids came in well below his mental floor. Running the numbers with an advisor, he realized local rents and his low fixed mortgage rate produced solid cash flow if he held the property instead. He delisted, converted the home to a rental, and diversified the surplus cash flow into his portfolio. The failed sale became a second income stream.
These stories show how delisting is often less about “giving up” and more about refusing to sell on someone else’s terms. The trade‑off is time: gridlock instead of clearance, and a slower, more uneven adjustment process.
A firm 10‑year Treasury and fragile global demand
Floating above the housing market is the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield, the benchmark that heavily influences 30‑year mortgage rates. Even as the Federal Reserve toggles between pausing and cutting short‑term rates, the long end of the curve can stay stubbornly elevated if investors demand extra compensation for inflation risk, fiscal worries, or geopolitical uncertainty.
One under‑appreciated dynamic is the evolving role of international buyers of U.S. debt. When foreign central banks and global investors slow their purchases or allow holdings to run off, the U.S. market has to lean more on domestic buyers. That often shows up as a higher term premium – a bit of extra yield embedded in longer‑term Treasuries – which keeps the 10‑year from falling as quickly as the overnight rate.
From a currency standpoint, there is a tug of war: if the Federal Reserve cuts aggressively while long yields finally start to drop, the dollar can weaken, potentially making Treasuries more attractive to some foreign buyers but worrying others who focus on real, after‑FX returns. If, instead, the 10‑year stays firm because global demand is hesitant and domestic investors insist on higher yields, mortgage rates can remain “too high to help” for a long time, even in a slowing economy.
What this means for your home over the next five years
Put the pieces together – high delistings, a firm 10‑year, and cautious global demand – and the most probable path for housing over the next one to five years is slow‑moving and uneven, not dramatic in either direction. Several implications follow:
Prices likely grind, not crash
In many markets, especially those with limited buildable land and strong job bases, nominal prices may be flat to modestly positive while inflation quietly chips away at real values. Buyers still face high monthly payments, and sellers still anchor to old peaks, so volumes remain subdued.
Outcomes diverge by metro
Supply‑heavy markets with lots of new construction and investor‑owned properties may see more visible price adjustments as some owners capitulate. In supply‑constrained “trophy” markets, higher delisting rates can keep on‑market inventory thin enough that prices stay sticky, with most of the adjustment happening via fewer transactions instead of lower sticker prices.
Gridlock becomes a feature, not a bug
Expect fewer move‑up buyers, longer tenures in existing homes, more accidental landlords, and more off‑market or “by invitation” listings. This kind of environment can last years, not months, particularly if rates remain elevated but not extreme and employment stays broadly intact.
For your personal plan, that means the decision to move, sell, rent, or renovate is less about “calling the top or bottom” and more about integrating housing into your broader five‑year life and financial strategy.
Why stocks may be the quiet beneficiary
While housing grinds through a standstill, the stock market can quietly benefit from a “now what?” feeling among savers and investors. If:
Cash yields eventually drift down,
Long‑term bond yields remain capped by slow growth but supported by lingering inflation and supply concerns, and
Housing feels expensive and illiquid,
then diversified equities become the default engine for long‑term growth again. This is the modern version of TINA – There Is No Alternative – not because other assets literally disappear, but because the combination of liquidity, earnings growth, and flexible re‑pricing makes stocks comparatively attractive for multi‑year goals.
That doesn’t mean “all in on stocks” or ignoring risk. It does mean that for many households, especially those in their peak earning years or early retirement, the core of the growth plan still runs through an appropriately balanced, equity‑anchored portfolio rather than speculative bets on a housing reset. If earnings for major indices remain broadly resilient, and recessions are shallow rather than structural, staying thoughtfully invested may be more important than trying to time every twist in rates or headlines.
Building a five‑year plan in a confusing market
When the housing market, bond market, and stock market send mixed signals, it is easy to freeze. But a five‑year window is long enough to make meaningful progress and short enough to plan for with some discipline. A seasoned money manager can help turn this confusing backdrop into a concrete roadmap by:
Connecting housing to your balance sheet
Should you delay a move, rent out a property, or bite the bullet and sell? The answer lives in your cash flow, tax situation, debt profile, and portfolio—not in a national headline. Modeling multiple scenarios (sell now, sell later, rent and hold, renovate then re-list) turns vague anxiety into numbers you can compare.
Right‑sizing risk in your investments
In a TINA‑flavored world, the temptation is often to stretch for return just when volatility is picking up. An advisor can help align your equity exposure with your actual time horizons and spending needs, complementing it with bonds, cash reserves, and, where appropriate, income‑producing real assets. That way, if the housing stalemate ends abruptly – via recession, policy shift, or a faster rate decline – you are prepared, not scrambling.
Staging decisions over time
Delisting standoffs can take years to work out. Instead of hinging everything on one big decision, you can break your five‑year plan into stages: year‑by‑year savings and investment targets, specific milestones for revisiting a potential move, and rules for how to respond if rates or prices move into certain ranges. This staged approach lowers regret and keeps you engaged without constant second‑guessing.
Above all, confusing and conflicting times are when professional guidance tends to have the most value. When markets feel straightforward, doing it yourself seems easy; when housing is gridlocked, global demand for U.S. debt is shifting, and stocks are both volatile and oddly resilient, having an experienced guide in your corner turns complexity into a series of navigable choices. Your five‑year plan does not depend on predicting the next headline – it depends on aligning your decisions with a clear, resilient framework.
Sincerely,
Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA
Vaughn Woods Financial Group, Inc.
2226 Avenida De La Playa
La Jolla, CA 92037
858-454-6900
Sources:
Redfin
Mortgage Professional America
BusinessWire
Reuters
CNN Business
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