The Link Between Uncertainty and Risk
Demystifying the Unknown
By Vaughn Woods, CFP, MBA
Are you keeping an eye on the intricate ballet of interconnected economic, geopolitical, and political forces that are, by uncertainty and risk, weaving together market unpredictability?
Investments in sectors heavily impacted by government policies are likely to experience underperformance in the near future. This happens in an election year. To illustrate, the House Ways and Means Committee meeting on Social Security fairness in April was just one factor injecting uncertainty into the minds of taxpayers, retirees, and investors. Let’s explore other sources of uncertainty that contribute to the current market unease (listed below).
- Russia is now firing an estimated 10,000 howitzers a day into Ukraine, supplanting a beautiful land with World War I-style trench warfare.
- The federal deficit is growing so fast that one trillion dollars is added to the federal debt every 100 days.
- The Biden administration wants to double the capital gains rate from 20% to 40+%.
- The Social Security system is 22.4 trillion dollars in debt. Congress has been assured all the money the rich have isn’t enough to solve the problem, so they’ll be coming after most everyone, since forty percent of America’s retirees rely on Social Security, only to maintain their lifestyles. The average Social Security recipient currently receives $1,850 per month.
- Social unrest, riots, city and campus protests, can create uncertainty which discourages investment. This, in turn, slows economic growth.
- Declining consumer confidence occurs as inflation remains high and entrenched. This leads to increased economic uncertainty. The effects of inflation reaching a 40-year high in 2022 are still being felt.
- Trade wars with China, hot wars in Ukraine, terrorist attacks against Israel, Philippines and Japan alliances against China and military buildup on all sides are expanding uncertainty.
Can we measure uncertainty with a number?
You might wonder if there’s a way to quantify uncertainty, especially during periods of dramatic market swings. The answer is yes! Economists at Stanford University created an index for this very purpose 39 years ago.
This index, called the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index, has been tracking U.S. economic uncertainty for nearly four decades. In most years, an EPU score below 100 suggests moderate to low uncertainty. A score of 100 indicates heightened uncertainty, which often precedes negative events impacting stock prices.
For reference, the EPU reached its highest level of 400 in 2001, the year of the 9/11 attacks. Conversely, the lowest reading was recorded in 1995, during the early stages of the dot-com boom. Interestingly, the S&P 500 stock market index surged by 37.58% that year.
Over 39 years the EPU index has risen to over 200 just 11 times, and four of those years were U.S. presidential election years. To take you back, those presidential election years matched 1988 competitors George H.W. Bush against Michael Dukakis. The year 2000 pitted George W. Bush against Al Gore. In 2008 Barack Obama fought off John McCain, and in 2020 Joe Biden was matched against Donald Trump.
Will 2024 reach the same level of economic policy uncertainty readings as the years below? We shall see. However, as you’ll see below, several events occurred in each of the 11 years in which the EPU rose above a 200 reading.
2022: War in Ukraine, Global Inflation, Rising Interest Rates
2020: COVID-19 Pandemic, US Presidential Election
2019: US-China Trade War, Hong Kong Protests
2008: Financial Crisis, Oil Price Shock
2003: SARS Outbreak, Iraq War
2001: September 11th Terrorist Attacks, Dot-com Bubble Burst
2000: Y2K Bug Scare, Bush v. Gore Election Dispute
1998: Asian Financial Crisis, Russian Debt Default
1991: Fall of the Soviet Union, Gulf War
1988: Pan Am Flight 103 Bombing, Iran-Contra Affair,
1987: Black Monday (Oct 19, 1987) Stock Market Crash
Unlike uncertainty, when discussing risk, it is important to recognize that the term risk is loaded with much more information. Risk is a calculation that estimates an actual event, such as a company’s operations leading to quarterly earnings and future growth. So, while risk estimates an event, uncertainty is an unknown. To illustrate, consider the year 2000 (Y2K). In 1999 going into the year 2000 could lead to any number of uncertainties, digital clocks, the loss of databases-aka, the unknown.
Uncertainty is strangely the certainty of the unknown, a feeling or attitude that one does not know the truth.
Events in time may lead to negative or positive economic outcomes. However, the takeaway here is that uncertainty (the unknown) and the unmeasurable convert to a known measurement overtime called risk. This measurement is fully realized through an old and observable financial principle called the equity risk premium, or ERP. The idea of a premium for investing in equities can be traced back to the 1920s, which states that the premium obtained by the long-term investor is 3% more than the risk-free rate (short-term government bonds).
John Burr Williams’ 1938 book “Theory of Investment Value” is considered a foundational text that discussed risk and return relationships. The concept predates a single person or theory. It’s an established principle that has evolved over time.
So, the two concepts, uncertainty and risk, are linked to each other. Uncertainty is represented by a situation in which you lack information about potential outcomes. Imagine exploring a completely new cave system. You have no idea what obstacles or dangers you might encounter. There’s a high degree of uncertainty because of the lack of information.
Understanding both concepts does mean an investor can stop trying to make sense of it all, what’s in the cave. After all, you’re in the cave to assess opportunities, problematic issues according to your needs and to solve these problems. Being early in the cave provides opportunities based upon intelligence, which is starting-point dependent.
In just this way the equity markets struggle to price in uncertainty because there’s no clear basis for unknown events. If everything was known, all asset allocation adjustments would be perfect in real time and, therefore, void of opportunity.
Think of the stock market as what it is, a daily auction of stocks and bonds built upon an assessment of accumulated and new information. It’s a discounting system. As such, investors tend to assess the near-term outlook of markets in the context of near-term uncertainty.
One key assessment of economic uncertainty is the pace of hiring and outlays for capital-spending projects. This information informs the Federal Reserve on the direction of productivity and inflation. This may be the reason the market has held up through March and witnessed some discounting during April.
There’s a delicate and uneasy balance of opportunity and risk uncertainty going into the summer months. At the time of this writing, the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for 2024 is now reading some 131.045.
Consider the Fed’s actions of late. Monetary policymakers are not immune to the challenges posed by rising levels of uncertainty. Just a little over one year ago the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank caused a banking crisis that still affects the confidence of decision makers, thereby restraining business and household spending. The EPU jumped to 185 during the crisis. The effect this had on the behavior of investors was for them to build up cash reserves.
Our strategy at Vaughn Woods Financial Group, Inc. is to refrain from taking on new equity positions unless the position is deemed to have a 20% upside potential based upon value calculations. Fundamental pricing models are considered. So, too, are the technical readings which suggest whether the company’s stock is under accumulation or distribution. We focus on strong financials, growth qualities, and fair value metrics. To this discipline we also add sector diversification, overweighting strategies, and rebalancing initiatives. Short-term and long-term gains and losses are also assessed for tax concerns.
Summary
Understanding the relationship between uncertainty and risk can make you a more informed and intelligent investor. High uncertainty tends to reflect slower GDP growth. Uncertainty itself isn’t directly used in discounting, but it can influence the risk premium applied to stocks and bonds.
Risk models assist in calculating whether a stock is currently overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued. Assessing free cash flows, price-to-earnings ratios, dividend payout ratios, quick ratios, insider buying, forward price-to-earnings ratios, gross margin expansion or contraction, and weighted average cost of capital vs. return on invested capital are but a few of the considerations that go into discounting risk.
Finally, it’s valuable to consider multiple valuation models, which we do. These valuation formulas include the Ben Graham valuation model, the Peter Lynch value model, Warren Buffet valuation model and the Guru Focus value model and a real-time politician trading tracker.
Wow. That was longer than usual. I trust you found this newsletter informative as to the keen understanding and responsibility we take in managing your portfolio. Our collaborative approach to uncertainty and risk taking is designed to align with your goals for income, growth, and tax considerations.
In the relentless rhythm of global economics, fossil fuels have historically served as the pulsating lifeblood, a critical element in the veins of our modern existence. Yet, an emerging force, artificial intelligence (AI), has swiftly elevated itself as an indispensable asset, channeling an unprecedented kind of influence over human capital. In the context of the United States, this has cemented a form of superiority that goes beyond traditional measures – one rooted in the cerebral terrains of AI.
Financial clients, vested profoundly in the undulations of markets and power, must pay heed to the emergent dichotomy of access. The “have” nation-states, riding the crest of AI adoption, are experiencing leaps in productivity, placing them leagues ahead of AI-deprived counterparts. But this burgeoning divide is not without its consequences. It accentuates an atmosphere ripe for cyber skirmishes, as lagging nations resort to aggressive strategies, attempting to bridge gaps through illicit means.
Consider the salient statistics; China’s cyber attackers are overwhelming U.S cyber defenses by a staggering ratio of 50 to 1. China, alongside Russia and Iran, isn’t just engaging in a digital arms race. They’re systematically constructing a sophisticated arsenal of cyber weapons and malware, calculatingly investing to undermine and potentially debilitate U.S vital infrastructures – be it telecommunications, water, or energy systems. Preemptively positioning these offensive capabilities is an anticipated precursor to severe geopolitical moves, such as actions against Taiwan.
Focusing efforts on sabotaging undersea cables, commandeering control over industrial processes, and unraveling reconnaissance operations has become a vital focal point for adversaries like Russia and Iran. With the October 7th events predicted to spark a series of radicalizations and mobilizations, we stand at the precipice of a prolonged war against terrorism.
Our adversaries’ tactics now transcend national boundaries; they strategically deploy private sector felons to advance their agendas, missioning them to filch not only economic intelligence but also guarded military secrets. This alarming trend indicates a shadow war thriving in the digital domain, overlaying the traditional battlegrounds.
From a financial perspective, these access struggles for access to AI and energy carry profound implications for the global economy and markets. The chasm between the AI-empowered and the AI-destitute can profoundly skew competitive edges, redefining market leaders and laggards in an increasingly digitized world. AI’s role as a catalyst in problem-solving and productivity significantly influences economic growth patterns, with ripple effects felt across investment landscapes.
As stakeholders in an interconnected financial system, it behooves us to appraise and adapt to these realities. Robust defensive strategies, reinforced by innovative technologies and policies, must be woven into the fabric of financial institutions. This strategy of the need for defensive holdings and technological leadership the cutting edge of where portfolios need to be today. Securing our digital foothold is no longer a siloed initiative but a universal imperative, demanding collective vigilance and strategic foresight.
It is paramount for us to envision the broader economic tableau, considering not only how AI and energy access sculpt the financial markets but also how they redefine both corporate and geopolitical prowess. In doing so, we hone our acumen for navigating a world where every byte of data – and every drop of oil – is a contested vessel of power.
Thank you for your referrals,
Vaughn L. Woods, CFP, MBA
Vaughn Woods Financial Group, Inc.
2226 Avenida De La Playa
La Jolla, CA 92037
858-454-6900
Investors should be aware that there are risks inherent in all investments such as fluctuations in investment principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Asset allocation cannot assure a profit nor protect against loss. Although the information has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, it cannot be guaranteed. Views expressed in this newsletter are those of Vaughn Woods and Vaughn Woods Financial Group and may not reflect the views of Bolton Global Capital or Bolton Global Asset Management. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. VW1/VWA0300.
Baker, Bloom and Davis, The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
ERP Insights for March 2024, Christina Morrison https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/erp-insights-march-2024-christina-morrison-vfghc/
Baker, Scott R.; Bloom, Nicholas; and Davis, Steven J. “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty.” Chicago Booth Research Paper No. 13-02, January 2013. www.policyuncertainty.com/media/BakerBloomDavis.pdf
Bernanke, Ben S. “Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1983, Vol. 98, No. 1, pp. 85-106.
Dixit, Avinash K.; and Pindyck, Robert S. Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1994.
Knight, Frank H. Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. John McClure, ed. Kissimmee, Fla.: Signalman Publishing, 2009.
Sánchez, Juan M.; and Yurdagul, Emircan. “Why Are Corporations Holding So Much Cash?” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ The Regional Economist, January 2013, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 5-8.
Corporate Finance Institute – Risk vs. Uncertainty: https://www.linkedin.com/advice/1/what-methods-used-analyze-risk-uncertainty-financial-dqzkf
The Balance – How Uncertainty Affects the Discount Rate: https://www.ndsu.edu/pubweb/~saxowsky/frm&agbusmgt/ref_topics/timevalue.htm