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April 2010 Newsletter

Vaughn Woods

Good news for homeowners. The housing market continues to show signs of stabilization. A recent Credit Suisse survey asked 1300 realtors across the country the following questions:

1.) Are traffic levels in-line with, above, or below your expectations for this time of year?

2.) Have prices remained the same, increased, or decreased over the past 30 days?

3.) Have incentives remained the same, increased, or decreased over the past 30
days?

4.) Do you see the same, more, or fewer listings as compared with 30 days ago?

5.) Does it take the same, more, or less time to sell a house?

All of the above indicators, with the exception of home listings, improved over the last month and are up considerably from the very low levels seen in late 2008 and early 2009. A review of past Credit Suisse realtor surveys suggests that if housing indicators continue to improve, we may begin seeing modest increases in home prices by year end. In San Diego, the housing picture looks even better. Home price indicators, according to the Credit Suisse survey are up from 50 in February to 61.8 in March, signaling an expansion in home prices. Any reading above 50 signals positive advancement. In fact, of the 40 metropolitan areas covered by the survey, only 3 scored better on the home price indicator than San Diego. These three metropolitan areas are the Inland Empire (Riverside & San Bernardino counties), Los Angeles and Washington DC.

The time it takes to sell a home also has improved in San Diego over the last month. In February, the time-to-sell indicator was 44, while in March it rose to 61, indicating that it is taking realtors less time to sell homes. The quicker a realtor can sell a home, the quicker the housing market can work off its inventory glut, which should be bullish for the housing market.

Unemployment, stricter lending rules and the possibility of higher interest rates remain as headwinds to the housing market. Fortunately, the most recent minutes of the Federal Reserve Board indicate that the federal funds rate should continue to remain “exceptionally low” for “an extended period”. Furthermore, approximately 160,000 jobs were added to the economy last month, indicating we may now be in an improving labor cycle, which should be positive for housing.

We continue to look for the S&P 500 to reach between 1220 and 1240 this year, although Standard & Poor’s research recently forecasted a 1270 price target on the S&P 500. If you would like to learn more about the housing market in your metropolitan area, please visit the White Paper section of my new website, www.vaughnwoods.com. We give you access to some of the same research we use on a daily basis, including the Credit Suisse survey used as the source of this newsletter. The White Paper Research is located in the lower-right of the page, above our poll question.

Contact Us to learn more about working with Vaughn Woods Financial Group.

Best Regards,

Signature

Vaughn L. Woods, CFP®, M.B.A.

*Investors should be aware that there are risks inherent in all investments, such as fluctuations in investment principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Asset allocation cannot assure a profit nor protect against loss. Although the information has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, it cannot be guaranteed. Views expressed in this newsletter may not reflect the views off Delta Equity Services Corp. The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. VW1/VWA0084
*Fee paid to Goldline Research for administrative costs
**Marketedge.com, Pershing NetExchange Pro, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse, Briefing.com
*** Oppenheim, D., M Dahl, W Alexis, Modest Improvement in March, as Buyers Focus on Tax Credit, Credit Suisse, 04/06/10
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